This looks great on the surface, however, maybe not-so-great when you start to look at per-share numbers (I'm currently still digging as I'm unable to translate some of the older doc's).
I'd be interested to know if you've run the numbers on a per-share basis going back say 10 years and if you have any thoughts around if historic dilution will continue?
Please correct me if I'm misunderstanding something here.
The annual report lays out their equity sales in a table attributing the raises to series' from A through N with the summation equating to the current listed SO of >35m.
I haven't dated each issue yet but It's noted on their IR page that the 'D' issuance was in 2010.
Since then at unknown (to me) intervals, their equity issuance has been.
Series E - 4% increase to ~1.35m
Series F - 10% increase to ~1.47m
Series G - 100% increase to ~2.69m
Series H - 50% increase to ~4.0m
Series I - 5000% increase to ~20.1m
Series J - 50% increase to ~30.2m
Series K - 5% increase to ~31.8m
Series L - 3% increase to ~32.8m
Series M - 7% increase to ~34.1m
Series N - 4% increase to ~35.5m
Options grant mentioned above 13% to 40m.
Series A to current is a 57 x increase, or 57,000% increase in shares out which seems likely has happened since the IPO.
I haven't got access to the 2010 financials but they were forecasting around Z0.35m in net profit for 2010. If we assume that was correct, their net profit is up around 14,000% or 14x from 2010.
If we just use the balance of shares from Series D to present (40m / 1.335m) that's a 30 fold increase in S/O.
So as a shareholder, we're earning far less / share now than we would have done in 2010 at the IPO.
Again - maybe I'm missing something - I hope I am?
I cannot really predict this but they have bene very generous with issueing shares ot the sales director. I expect this to end at some point as I don't expect the two mayor holder to keep giving him shares till he is the biggest shareholder. Hence I use 40m but could clearly be slightly more. Even at 5% dilution every year I think the idea could work.
Thanks for sharing the thesis. Good job!! Just a question: If Eurosnack is predominantly owned by three major shareholders, with insiders holding around 91% of the company's shares, why do you think they don't buy the other 9% and go private? Just in case they retire in a few years? 1 million dollar free float looks like very little for a public company.
I don't know why they didn;t do it in the past. I have seen example of the shareholders not voting the same way at the AGM. And like I sad they paid the dividend something I would not do if I wanted to go private. My guess is they don't want to own a private company together.
Nice find!
Well done, Sir.
This looks great on the surface, however, maybe not-so-great when you start to look at per-share numbers (I'm currently still digging as I'm unable to translate some of the older doc's).
I'd be interested to know if you've run the numbers on a per-share basis going back say 10 years and if you have any thoughts around if historic dilution will continue?
Please correct me if I'm misunderstanding something here.
The annual report lays out their equity sales in a table attributing the raises to series' from A through N with the summation equating to the current listed SO of >35m.
I haven't dated each issue yet but It's noted on their IR page that the 'D' issuance was in 2010.
Since then at unknown (to me) intervals, their equity issuance has been.
Series E - 4% increase to ~1.35m
Series F - 10% increase to ~1.47m
Series G - 100% increase to ~2.69m
Series H - 50% increase to ~4.0m
Series I - 5000% increase to ~20.1m
Series J - 50% increase to ~30.2m
Series K - 5% increase to ~31.8m
Series L - 3% increase to ~32.8m
Series M - 7% increase to ~34.1m
Series N - 4% increase to ~35.5m
Options grant mentioned above 13% to 40m.
Series A to current is a 57 x increase, or 57,000% increase in shares out which seems likely has happened since the IPO.
I haven't got access to the 2010 financials but they were forecasting around Z0.35m in net profit for 2010. If we assume that was correct, their net profit is up around 14,000% or 14x from 2010.
If we just use the balance of shares from Series D to present (40m / 1.335m) that's a 30 fold increase in S/O.
So as a shareholder, we're earning far less / share now than we would have done in 2010 at the IPO.
Again - maybe I'm missing something - I hope I am?
The share count is 35.52 million as of today, correct?
How much dilution do you expect in a given year?...for instance, for 2024, how much share-based compensation do you and/or Management expect?
I cannot really predict this but they have bene very generous with issueing shares ot the sales director. I expect this to end at some point as I don't expect the two mayor holder to keep giving him shares till he is the biggest shareholder. Hence I use 40m but could clearly be slightly more. Even at 5% dilution every year I think the idea could work.
Thanks for sharing the thesis. Good job!! Just a question: If Eurosnack is predominantly owned by three major shareholders, with insiders holding around 91% of the company's shares, why do you think they don't buy the other 9% and go private? Just in case they retire in a few years? 1 million dollar free float looks like very little for a public company.
I don't know why they didn;t do it in the past. I have seen example of the shareholders not voting the same way at the AGM. And like I sad they paid the dividend something I would not do if I wanted to go private. My guess is they don't want to own a private company together.